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The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 1.96% yesterday before easing slightly. It has not crossed 2% since July 2019; perhaps tomorrow when the January US inflation rate is released? Equity markets are holding up well, supported by good corporate results and easing energy prices. In general, markets are calmer this week. The EUR/USD exchange rate is stabilising above 1.14.
Germany’s trade balance showed a surplus of €7bn in December, the smallest for over 20 years with the exception of the very special month of April 2020. France posted a record deficit. So did the United States. On the other hand, the surpluses of the energy-producing countries soared, as did those of China, whose products have enjoyed record demand since the start of the pandemic.
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