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After taking a breather on Wednesday, European gas prices resumed their uptrend yesterday, still supported by tight fundamentals. Indeed, Russian supply remained weak yesterday, averaging 287 mm cm/day (compared to 288 mm cm/day on Wednesday), as both flows through Poland and Ukraine remained below their levels of last week. Norwegian flows were down, averaging 292 mm cm/day (compared to 314 mm cm/day on Wednesday), due to planned maintenance works.
The additional rise in Asia JKM prices (+2.13% for the October 2021 contract, to €53.052/MWh) and in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were up) also provided support.
At the close, NBP ICE October 2021 prices increased by 4.250 p/th day-on-day (+3.33%), to 132.00 p/th. TTF ICE October 2021 prices were up by 168 euro cents (+3.35%) at the close, to €51.916/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 94 euro cents (+2.82%), closing at €34.295/MWh, slightly above the coal parity price (€33.890/MWh).
Tight fundamentals could continue to lend support to European gas prices today. However, profit taking by financial participants and technical resistances (€52.129/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €34.437/MWh on TTF Cal 2022) could contribute to limit gains.
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