Mixed price evolution

European spot gas prices were mixed yesterday, while curve prices were more clearly downward. The latter continued their technical correction in a context of rather stable Asia JKM prices (-2.34%, to €102.895/MWh, on the spot; +0.21%, to €100.933/MWh, for the December 2021 contract) and lower parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices dropped). Note that China domestic coal prices dropped for the first time in several days in night trading after the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said government intervention in coal prices was discussed at a meeting of key coal producers, the industry association and the China Electricity Council earlier in the day.

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows were slightly lower yesterday, averaging 256 mm cm/day, compared to 259 mm cm/day on Monday. Norwegian supply was also slightly lower, to 348 mm cm/day on average, compared to 350 mm cm/day on Monday. 

At the close, NBP ICE November 2021 prices dropped by 11.410 p/th day-on-day (-4.81%), to 225.910 p/th. TTF ICE November 2021 prices were down by €4.00 (-4.26%) at the close, to €89.932/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by €1.09 (-1.93%), closing at €55.382/MWh, widening the spread against the coal parity price (€35.980/MWh, -4.73%).

As expected, TTF ICE November 2021 prices found support yesterday around the 20-day average and the 5-day Low. Today, unless there is a major fundamental announcement, prices could continue to trade in the bottom of the 5-day Low/5-day High range.