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Today, the OPEC ministerial meeting will be held in Vienna. We expect OPEC members to stick to their production policy and increase targeted group-wide production by 0.4 mb/d. While the political pressure is mounting for Saudi Arabia – the historical partner of the US in the Middle East – there are good reasons for maintaining a cautious approach to the current market environment. With sweet-sour crude physical spreads widening, struggling loading programs in West Africa and low OSPs, OPEC clients are not showing great signs of buying frenzy. Furthermore, Dubai time spreads have eased over the last few days, in line with WTI and Brent spreads. Looking at inventories, we learned yesterday that US crude inventories continued to build by close to 4 mb, in line with seasonal patterns and low refining activity. Japanese crude inventories on the opposite dipped by another 5 mb despite low refining utilization rates. Most of Kayrros’s weekly reduction in onshore inventories are located in India, which also contribute to a tighter Asian crude market, in line with a general recovery in Asian refined product demand.
source: PAJ
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