Prices weakened again, slightly

European gas prices weakened again yesterday. Amid domestic fundamentals largely unchanged, the moderation in Asia JKM prices (-4.89%, to €103.426/MWh, on the spot; -0.36%, to €103.179/MWh, for the January 2022 contract) continued to exert downward pressure. On the spot pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were almost stable yesterday, at 343 mm cm/day on average, compared to 344 mm cm/day on Friday. The same for Russian supply, which averaged 288 mm cm/day, compared to 289 mm cm/day on Friday.

At the close, NBP ICE December 2021 prices dropped by 8.340 p/th day-on-day (-3.80%), to 211.170 p/th. TTF ICE December 2021 prices were down by €3.11  (-3.57%) at the close, to €84.017/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by €1.11 (-2.10%), closing at €51.552/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€36.889/MWh, +2.13%) narrowing.

TTF ICE December 2021 prices wisely stayed yesterday inside their “normal” trading range, with the 5-day Low lending them support. The outlook remains the same as yesterday: the 5-day Low support should hold again today, although a temporary drop towards the 20-day average cannot be excluded (by contrast, a drop to the 20-day Low seems difficult to achieve for the time being given the levels of Asia JKM prices).