Concerns about Russian supply and French nuclear generation pushed prices strongly up

European gas prices maintained their strong uptrend yesterday, still supported by concerns on low Russian supply as Gazprom did not book day-ahead capacity into Mallnow via the Yamal pipeline. Moreover, the head of German energy regulator said yesterday there will be no final decision on the certification of the operator of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the first half of 2022. France nuclear problems provided additional support as they might require higher gas-fired generation in France and in neighboring countries. But, it is important to notice that Asia JKM prices did not follow the surge in European prices, falling by 3.21% on the spot, to €121.281/MWh, and increasing by only 0.19% for the February 2022 contract, to €130.862/MWh. 

At the close, NBP ICE January 2022 prices increased by 24.420 p/th day-on-day (+7.29%), to 359.480 p/th. TTF ICE January 2022 prices were up by €10.48 (+7.92%) at the close, to €142.765/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by €7.64 (+9.09%), closing at €91.657/MWh.

After not booking anything at the day-ahead auction, Gazprom booked overnight within-day capacity at Mallnow, which should keep Russian supply steady today (it was 284 mm cm/day yesterday, stable compared to Wednesday). Moreover, after a drop to 342 mm cm/day yesterday, Norwegian flows are back to normal this morning, to 351 mm cm/day. This easing of concerns on domestic supply and the moderation in Asia JKM prices are pulling TTF ICE January 2022 prices down this morning, to €129.45/MWh, close to the 5-day average at €129.78/MWh. Volatility is so high that we believe that prices could trade today anywhere between the 5-day Low (€114.52/MWh) and the 5-day High (€135.56/MWh)