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European gas prices continued to increase yesterday, still supported by concerns on supply. Russian flows stabilized at their weak levels yesterday, averaging 104 mm cm/day. Norwegian flows were significantly lower, averaging 308 mm cm/day, compared to 329 mm cm/day on Monday, and are even lower this morning (287 mm cm/day) due to a compressor failure at the Troll field.
The additional strong rise in coal prices (+6.68% for API2 1st nearby prices, +8.24% for Cal 2023 prices) also provided support.
Note that after the Netherlands and Denmark, Sweden in turn declared a gas market “early warning”.
At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices increased by 5.020 p/th (+2.50%), to 205.860 p/th, equivalent to €81.849/MWh. TTF ICE July 2022 prices were up by €4.933 (+4.09%), closing at €125.560/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €3.864 (+4.37%), closing at €92.188/MWh.
In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 2.03%, to €119.236/MWh.
With a Russian supply that does not deteriorate further and a Norwegian supply expected to increase from tomorrow, TTF 1st nearby prices could continue their “normalization” process today, ie trade in the lower part of the range set by the 20-day High and the 5-day High.
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