Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed yesterday, amid unchanged fundamentals and slight drop in Asia JKM prices (-0.83% on the spot, to €105.380/MWh; -1.40% for the January 2022 contract, to €106.662/MWh). On the pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were almost stable yesterday, averaging 338 mm cm/day, compared to 339 mm cm/day on Wednesday. Russian supply remained stable, at 281 mm cm/day on average.

At the close, NBP ICE January 2022 prices dropped by 2.440 p/th day-on-day (-1.00%), to 242.090 p/th. TTF ICE January 2022 prices were down by 84 euro cents (-0.88%) at the close, to €94.830/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 46 euro cents (+0.82%), closing at €57.059/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€37.973/MWh, +1.92%) slightly narrowing.

TTF ICE January 2022 prices closed yesterday slightly below the R1 resistance level. We choose to show now the graph of the TTF ICE Cal 2022 contract to monitor hedging opportunities before its expiration on December 30. We thought these Cal 2022 prices could drop to their 20-day Low (currently at €47.99/MWh) by the end of the year. But with January 2022 prices (and Q1 2022 prices as a whole) stabilizing at high levels, this prospect is less and less likely. However, some small drops are still possible. Yesterday, prices closed slightly above the R1 level. But the drop in January 2022 prices this morning could pull them lower today, probably down to the 5-day average and even the S1 level.