Prices up on colder weather

European gas prices were up yesterday, supported by forecasts of colder weather. However, spot fundamentals remain comfortable overall as storages show (European gas storages are in net injection mode since March 22). On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows were almost stable yesterday, averaging 251 mm cm/day, compared to 250 mm cm/day on Monday. Norwegian flows dropped slightly, averaging 319 mm cm/day, compared to 323 mm cm/day on Monday.

At the close, NBP ICE April 2022 prices increased by 17.650 p/th day-on-day (+7.18%), to 263.420 p/th. TTF ICE April 2022 prices were up by €5.84 (+5.69%), closing at €108.381/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were up by €1.09  (+1.61%), closing at €68.456/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 7.53%, to €103.653/MWh; May 2022 prices dropped by 1.24%, to €104.273/MWh.

The market is in a waiting position, focused on the outcome of Moscow’s demands to be paid in rubles, which European leaders have rejected. The Russian central bank, the government and Gazprom should present their proposals for ruble gas payments to President Putin by tomorrow. TTF ICE April 2022 prices closed yesterday around their 5-day average. They are up again this morning, but remain inside the (wide) 5-day range, the latter being itself inside the range set by the maximum coal switching level (currently around €85/MWh) and the maximum gasoil switching level (currently around €136/MWh). But, given the levels of Asia JKM prices and the various risks on Russian supply, prices seem to have more upside potential than downside.