OPEC+ does not deviate from its path

Yesterday’s OPEC meeting was uneventful, as the group briefly met, to extend the current production policy of a 400 kb/d group-wide production increase in October. The impact of Ida, combined with lost Mexican production, removed a substantial volume of sour crudes, especially needed for US refineries. With the Biden administration’s latest comments on OPEC policy, the producer group is likely to remain on track with their production increases, despite the lack of demand from Asian customers, which could potentially push Saudi OSPs to be revised down, to account for the recent drop in Asian product cracks.

US offshore supply might be coming back quicker than we expected, as producers are trying to divert crude production towards other ports on the Gulf coast. It is estimated today by the BSEE that 1.4 mb/d of crude production remains offline, starting initially at 1.7 mb/d. On the other side, 75% of Louisiana refining capacity is offline, with the state struggling to bring back the power supply in the most coastal areas of the state, where refineries are located.