Very strong rebound in oil prices

The downturn in prices based mainly on the idea that the conflict in Ukraine could quickly end seemed to be exaggerated. This was confirmed yesterday, as soon as serious doubts reappeared about the validity of this scenario. In addition, statements from Chinese leaders suggested that restrictive measures to stop the pandemic could be eased to limit the economic cost. The price of Brent crude oil rebounded by around $10/b yesterday and continued to rise overnight, so that in just over 24 hours it has risen from $98/b to $109/b.

However, the question of whether Russian oil flows will remain at a high level is not clear cut. Yesterday we quoted Reuters and the IEA report that Russian exports are being sharply curtailed despite sanctions theoretically sparing them. According to Kepler, India is picking up Russian Ural cargoes that are no longer being sold at extremely favourable financial terms (a discount of $20 to $30/b). Since the beginning of March, purchases by Indian companies have reached 360kb/d, i.e. about 4 times their usual level.