Carbon prices extended their uptrend on firmer gas and equities

Except in France where prices were driven slightly down by the lower demand expected, the European power spot prices rebounded yesterday amid forecasts of easing wind output. The day-ahead prices averaged 213.72€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +17.93€/MWh day-on-day.

The emissions prices quickly recovered from an early weakness induced by the Fed’s news late Wednesday and increased throughout Thursday, once again tracking the gains of the gas and financial markets. Some market participants also attributed the upward move to technical buying, with the MACD now clearly on the bullish side. The 90€/t however capped the gains and the EUA Dec.22 eventually closed at 89.76€/t, +1.10€/t from Wednesday’s settlement, but the benchmark contract already broke above the resistance this morning to hit up to 90.63€/t. We could see a test of last year’s Dec.22 all-time high of 91.19€/t, but pre-weekend profit-taking following this week’s bullish trend is however not to be excluded later today, especially with the Relative Strength Index currently pointing to overbought conditions (81 at the time of writing).

Buoyed by the rising gas and carbon prices, the power forward prices continued to post gains along the curve.